pmp培训项目进度管理三点估算

专家判断，类比估算，参数估算，三点估算，自下而上估算，数据分析，决策会议类比估算，使用类似项目的历史数据来估算本项目。

应急储备应该包含在进度基准中，用来应对已知的未知风险。随着信息越来越明确，可以动用减少或取消应急储备。管理储备不包含在进度基准中，用来应对未知的未知风险。当动用了管理储备来应对未知的未知风险，就要把动用的那部分管理储备添加进进度基准当中，引起了基准的变化，得到三个输出，持续时间估算，估算依据，项目文件更新。

三点估算，考虑估算中的不确定性和风险，来提高活动持续时间估算的准确性。什么时候使用有风险，没经验的时候，三点估算是偏僻考试的必考题，如何掌握好三点估算，在项目管理的培训课程中，讲师会详细介绍，自下而上估算，基于WBS的一种估算方法，什么时候使用？ 

这件事情你曾经做过，所以可以参考历史信息，又叫自上而下估算，是一种粗略的估算方法。在项目的早期信息不足时使用参数估算，利用历史数据之间的统计关系，建立参数模型数学模型来估算成本和时间。

在项目的后期有了详细信息时，先估算每个活动的持续时间，汇总得到每个工作包的时间，再由工作包进行汇总，得到每个控制账户的时间，最后累积到整个项目所需时间。储备分析估算，时间时需要考虑应急储备，用来应对进度方面的不确定性和风险。

Expert judgement, analogy estimation, parameter estimation, three-point estimation, bottom-up estimation, data analysis, decision-making conference analogy estimation, using historical data of similar projects to estimate the project.

pmp培训

The contingency reserve should be included in the schedule baseline to address known unknown risks. As information becomes more and more clear, emergency reserves can be reduced or eliminated. Management reserves are not included in the schedule baseline and are used to deal with unknown unknown risks. When the management reserve is used to deal with the unknown unknown risk, the part of the management reserve that is used is added to the progress benchmark, causing the change of the benchmark, obtaining three outputs, duration estimation, estimation basis, and project file update.

A three-point estimate that considers the uncertainty and risk in the estimate to improve the accuracy of the activity duration estimate. When is the use of risk, when there is no experience, the three-point estimate is a must for the remote test. How to master the three-point estimate? In the project management training course, the lecturer will give a detailed introduction, bottom-up estimation, based on WBS. An estimation method, when is it used?