pmp培训学习笔记|三点估算

通过考虑估算中的不确定性和风险，使用最乐观最可能最悲观三种估算值来界定活动成本的近似区间。它有两种算法，基于贝塔分布，基于三角分布。

应急储备包含在成本基准当中，用来应对已知的未知风险。随着项目信息越来越明确，可以动用减少或取消应急储备。

管理储备不包含在成本基准当中，用来应对未知的未知风险。

当动用了管理储备用来应对未知的未知风险，需要把动用的管理储备添加进成本基准当中，引起了基准的变化，得到三个输出，成本估算。 估算依据，项目文件更新。

如果题目没有特别声明的情况下，默认基于贝塔分布，期望成本等于最乐观加四倍，最可能加最悲观除以六。

标准差也就是西格玛等于最悲观减去最乐观除以六。如果基于三角分布，期望成本等于最乐观，加上最悲观家最可能除以三。

期望成本的概念表示以这种成本完成活动，它的概率是50%。处被分析为应对成本方面的不确定性和风险，估算时需要考虑应急储备。

pmp培训，By considering the uncertainty and risk in the estimate, the three most optimistic and most pessimistic estimates are used to define the approximate range of activity costs. It has two algorithms, based on the beta distribution, based on the triangular distribution.

The contingency reserve is included in the cost baseline to address known unknown risks. As project information becomes more and more clear, emergency reserves can be reduced or eliminated.

Management reserves are not included in the cost baseline and are used to deal with unknown unknown risks.

When management reserves are used to deal with unknown unknown risks, the management reserves that need to be used need to be added to the cost baseline, causing changes in the baseline, resulting in three outputs, cost estimates. Estimated basis, project file update.

If the title is not specifically stated, the default is based on the beta distribution, the expected cost is equal to the most optimistic plus four times, and most likely plus the most pessimistic divided by six.

The standard deviation is also that sigma is equal to the most pessimistic minus the most optimistic divided by six. If based on a triangular distribution, the expected cost is equal to the most optimistic, plus the most pessimistic is most likely to be divided by three.

The concept of expected cost represents the completion of activity at this cost, with a probability of 50%. The situation is analyzed to address uncertainty and risks in terms of cost, and contingency reserves need to be considered in the estimation.