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PMP培训学习笔记|定量风险分析

PMP培训学习笔记|定量风险分析

专家判断,数据收集,数据分析,人际关系与团队技能,风险分类,数据表现。会议风险数据质量评估,评价关于单个项目风险数据的准确性与可靠性,比如后天下雨的概率0.4,天晴的概率0.6,评估一下这些数据是不是可靠,质量是否高,风险概率和影响评估,调查单个风险发生的概率和影响,风险紧迫性评估,把近期就需要应对的风险确定为更紧迫的风险。


定量风险分析,它属于风险管理知识领域规划过程组,过程定义式,就已识别的单个项目风险和不确定性的其他来源,对项目整体目标的影响进行定量分析,量化整体风险敞口,用损失多少钱表示出来?


风险分类,按风险的来源受影响的工作,共同的根本原因给风险进行分类。给风险分类的好处是为了便于制定通用的应对措施,概率和影响举证,又叫风险级别举证,把风险的概率乘以影响得出风险的分值,对应到级别举证中,得到一个输出项目文件更新,风险登记册更新经过定性分析之后,会对每个风险的概率和影响进行评估,得出风险值,排列优先级,指定风险责任人,把低等级风险放入待观察清单,风险报告更新,记录最重要的单个项目风险,所有已识别风险的优先级列表以及简单的结论。

 pmp培训

Risk classification, the risk is classified according to the work affected by the source of the risk, and the common root cause. The advantage of classifying risk is to facilitate the development of a common response, probability and impact proof, also known as risk level proof, multiplying the probability of risk by the score that affects the risk, corresponding to the level of proof, get an output project file Update, after the qualitative analysis of the risk register, the probability and impact of each risk will be evaluated, the risk value will be obtained, the priority will be assigned, the risk owner will be designated, the low-level risk will be put into the waiting list, and the risk report will be updated. , document the most important individual project risks, a prioritized list of all identified risks, and simple conclusions.



四个输入,项目管理计划,项目文件,事业环境因素,组织过程资产,用到五个工具。专家判断,数据收集,人际关系与团队技能,不确定性表达方式,数据分析,敏感性分析,有助于确定哪些风险对项目具有的潜在影响,把所有其他不确定因素都固定在基准值,再来考察每个因素的变化,会对目标产生多大程度的影响。 


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