pmp培训学习笔记|敏感性分析

EMV是建立在风险中立的假设之上的，既不避险也不冒险，经常在决策树分析中使用。决策树是PMP考试的必考题，如何理解和掌握好决策树，一个输出项目文件更新，风险报告更新，对整体项目风险敞口的评估结果，单个项目风险优先级清单，对项目关键路径有最大影响的单个项目风险清单等。

敏感性分析的典型表现形式是龙卷风图，预期货币价值分析。机会的EMV通常表示为正直而威胁的EMV则表示为负值，把每个可能结果的数值与其发生的概率相乘，再把所有乘积相加，就可以计算出项目的EMV。

比如延长进度计划，改变项目策略，缩小范围等转移，将应对策略的责任转移给第三方，让第三方管理风险，并承担威胁发生的影响。外包是一种典型的风险转移策略，减轻采取措施降低威胁发生概率或影响。

上报如果项目团队或项目发起人认为某威胁不在范围内，或提议的应对措施超出了项目经理的权限，就应该采用上报策略，威胁，一旦上报就不再由项目团队做进一步监督，被上报的风险将在向级更高的层面加以管理次，规避采取行动来完全消除威胁，把概率降低为零，让他一定不发生。

pmp培训学习英文笔记

• For example, extending the schedule, changing the project strategy, narrowing the scope, etc., transfer the responsibility for the response strategy to a third party, let the third party manage the risk, and bear the impact of the threat. 

• Outsourcing is a typical risk transfer strategy that mitigates measures to reduce the probability or impact of a threat.

• If the project team or project sponsor believes that a threat is not in scope, or if the proposed response exceeds the authority of the project manager, the escalation strategy should be adopted. 

• The threat should not be further supervised by the project team once reported, and reported. The risk will be managed at a higher level, evading action to completely eliminate the threat, reducing the probability to zero, so that he must not.